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B Grigore, J Peters, C Hyde and K Stein
Abstract
When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used.
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Concepts
Probability, Risk, Evaluation, Subroutine, Technology assessment, Expert witness, Expert, Decision theory
MeSH headings
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